Hispanos: El Great Divide...Choosing McCain or Clinton

5/18/08-George W. Bush won 40% of the Latino vote in 2004, which was enough to help him secure re-election. Based on the behavior of Hispanic primary voters, Sen. Clinton is in a much better position to reclaim to cut into that number, a difficult task when running against Sen. McCain, who is perceived to be a moderate with a history of working across the aisle on the issues important to our community (immigration, education).

As this contest winds down, Democrats are facing the reality that it will not be as easy to define a John McCain presidency as a "third Bush term." Single women, Hispanics, and working class voters--three demographics key to a Democratic victory in November and which has come out in large numbers for Sen. Clinton--don't see John McCain as a Republican in the Bush mold.

"Hispanic voters have not yet gelled for any candidate yet. In this election it is up for grabs," said Paul Brace, a political science professor at Rice University.  "The interest among Hispanics may be more in John McCain the man than in the Republican Party," he added.

 

Hispanics like Leyva, 45, say they like the fact that McCain teamed with Democratic Sen. Edward Kennedy on the immigration bill, which was later killed by the Republicans.

 

Others say they find common ground with his anti-abortion record -- an issue for Latinos, many of whom are Roman Catholics -- together with his support for small businesses and the U.S. military, in which many Hispanics serve.

 

"His values are the same as, rather similar to, our values," said Ramon Perez, 42, an electrician in Los Angeles who has voted Democratic but now is weighing his options.

 

"I will vote for Hillary, and if not her, then maybe McCain."

John McCain certainly has an uphill battle when it comes to the Hispanic vote, as both Sens. Clinton and Obama have received a larger share of the Hispanic vote thus far, but it is not an impossible one. Unlike other blocs of traditionally Democratic voters (such as African-Americans), Hispanics haven't entirely tuned out the option of voting for John McCain, although they only cautiously flirt with the option. The challenge for the McCain campaign is to transform tentative interest from Hispanics into votes come November.

His campaign also launched a Web site reaching out to Hispanic voters on the Mexican Cinco de Mayo festival, or May 5th holiday, which is celebrated across the U.S. Southwest, and he is also planning to speak at the annual convention of Mexican-American advocacy group the National Council of La Raza in July.

I recently received an email from Juanita, a California woman who recognizes a disconnect between the feelings of the Hispanic community and the media's coverage thus far.

I realize that not all Hispanics/Latinos support Sen. Clinton but I believe that if her supporters in our community were to voice their concern for the country and say, "We will only vote for Sen. Clinton and no one else. We will hold our votes and make it clear to all political parties that we are a force in this country. We are tired of being disenfranchised, of being put aside while all the news and concern is either black or white. We want to be heard and if we have to go to drastic measures then so be it. Sen. Clinton has listened to us, now is the time to speak up for her."

Juanita does have a point--most of the coverage during this long primary season has focused on which candidate won a majority of support from the "white working class" demographic that will be key to winning swing states in November. It's almost a given that Sen. Obama will win in states with a high percentage of African-Americans, so the media harps on whether Sen. Clinton will be able to make inroads with black voters come November.

The media attention given to Hispanic voters in Nevada and California left a lot to be desired. Sen. Clinton's support in the Hispanic community is strong, and instead of highlighting Sen. Clinton's progressive agenda to help our community, we were accused of being racists unwilling to vote for an African-American.

Juanita's proposal is a bit radical, but hints at a larger truth about the community that will be key to victory in November--that we are more politically divided than most will admit and than some realize.

By Xavier Lopez-Ayala

Email: lopez-ayala@hispanic.com

http://cerebralpolitics.blogspot.com

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